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Ten years following the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that divided the country and unleashed turmoil, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.

Policymakers and electorate drifted into Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is equipped.

That conveys the caution from two respected journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.

Governmental Establishments Unprepared

Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly contentious and seismic public vote.

"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum very quickly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our region remains extremely volatile."

New Title Intends to Provoke Discussion

The pair have studied the governmental, economic and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They hope to provoke discussion on the issue with a series of speaking events that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.

"What troubles all parties, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.

"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose consequences have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily split population where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the people who have won don't know exactly what it is that they have gained."

Legal Framework

Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would approve.

Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim this point is looming, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, leaving it unclear if and when there could be a national vote.

Insufficient Substantive Discussion

Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has obscured the lack of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.

"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has gone on in scholarly circles but scarcely any elected officials or advocates are willing to participate with even the basics. For instance, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Federal?"

Publication's Method

In the publication, none of the commentators endorses unification or the existing arrangement. Each authors two articles that seek neutrality in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling economic and social figures, previous instances and constitutional models.

Arguments cover national emblems, duties, health services, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to inform and provoke dialogue.

"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there hasn't quite been a debate," said O’Toole. "Discussion implies an acknowledgement of the idea that there may exist valid points on both sides."

Dual Referendums

A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens claim they favour unity but refuse greater financial contributions or adopting a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.

"Policymakers in Ireland does need to establish what the offer from nationalist groups is aside from just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.

Possibility of Public Vote

The journalist thinks a national vote in his generation is likely and that it might occur unexpectedly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a incompetent official who says: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"

Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, justified perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and somebody will in the end be defeated but all factions has possesses important lessons to acquire from the other's arguments."

Call for More Extensive Dialogue

Westminster must engage with the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This is about your state. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish issue."