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Usually, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year award follows a straightforward script. It commonly acts as a type of apology. Sorry we misjudged your squad in our preseason projections.

Theoretically, it's a clear-cut line: the coach who engineered the largest resurgence is handed the prize. In reality, it sparks an yearly debate about preseason outlooks and whether we're truly honoring superior coaching or merely the greatest upset.

However the latest field is distinctly unique. The pool of contenders is unusually strong. It has been the year of turnarounds. The league has been chaotic, with recent conference champions fading and longtime strugglers ascending in unison. During an typical season, a coach leading the his team to the summit of the AFC would make him the overwhelming favorite. Yet in this wild and fun season, he's competing with several other outstanding coaches.

Below is how the hypothetical vote ought to be structured.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, Their Record

Coach of the Year voters love quarterbacks. They always have. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. Should you solve a quarterback, you're well on your way home.

Ben Johnson didn't merely corrected his young quarterback; he's freed him. In the right ecosystem, the QB has been given the chance to display his otherworldly talent. Since midseason onward, the Bears rank number four in offensive EPA per play. That's not a hot streak – it's sustained performance. Under his guidance, the quarterback has become increasingly decisive, far less careless, and has willingly surrendered to the gameplan rather than freelancing. It is an attack designed solely in the coach's image: a bully-ball ground attack, a steady dose of play-action and a innovative passing attack that frees wide receiver targets all over the field. Williams has thrived. And when easy reads haven't been there, he's been capable to conjure big plays out of broken plays.

Johnson arrived to the Bears with a defined offensive blueprint. Virtually each gamble – rebuilding the offensive line, featuring the pass-catchers, turning the QB into a timing-based thrower – has succeeded. This is uncommon for a first-year head coach. And it's even more uncommon still for a coach who entered the organization with the immense hype Johnson did. For consecutive straight cycles, he was the hottest name on the head coaching market. However when it comes to selecting a leader, there are zero guarantees. Remarkably, Johnson has met expectations – and even surpassed them. He's demonstrated not just to be a scheme genius but the type of leader that can inject fresh energy into an organization.

In a ordinary year, he would be the runaway favorite. Yet this isn't a typical season!

Where his case comes a bit into trouble is on the defensive side. The Bears presently sit in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are relying on takeaways, and turnovers are notoriously inconsistent. Defensive minds can stress creating turnovers, but nobody can guarantee it. He is on the list because the offensive production is sustainable. He's ranked lower because variance is doing too much of the defensive heavy lifting. If not for a few breaks of the ball, the Bears would be two victories behind. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the foundation is established for long-term success. But Johnson falls just short in this ranking.

4) Liam Coen, His Team, Their Record

Coen is in a similar spot to his counterpart. He's another rookie leader who has orchestrated a swift turnaround. During the crucial final weeks of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the finest all-around ball of his career. And he's also spearheaded the transformation of a defensive unit that now ranks fifth in the NFL in EPA per play.

What's more notably, Coen has nailed the intangibles stuff, which wasn't a certainty after his early press conference introduction and some of his preseason moves.

The coach took over Jacksonville with an exceptionally inexperienced coaching staff. Unlike Johnson, who packed their staff with the perfect staff blend of youth and veteran savvy, he bet on first-timers. Starting with the leader himself to coordinators to position coaches, the Jags are filled with first-timers. That type of setup is exciting on paper, but often fails in practice – as past failures are a warning – because everybody is learning a their job on the fly. But he has pulled the entire group and everything together.

Following an initial strong start, there was a chance that the season would veer off the rails. A mid-year setback had the team stumbling once more. That's typically when coaches overcorrect. Coen didn't. Instead, he streamlined things. Jacksonville stopped pursuing explosive answers and started hunting sustainable ones. The coach recentered the offense around key players and the ground attack, and encouraged his QB to use his legs more.

The outcomes are clear. The Jaguars have won multiple games in a row and will be the AFC's No 3 playoff seed. Coen receives the slightest deduction in the standings because he took over a talented team, but he has demonstrated he can maximize that roster.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Every Strong of the Year argument has a hinge decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback choice.

Moving on from a incumbent, signing a different quarterback and partnering him with an new play-caller could have ended the season in the early weeks. Instead, it shaped it. Through the mid point of the year, the new QB was an MVP front-runner. He has cooled off since that hot streak, slipping to a lower rank in efficiency per dropback over the latter part of the season, putting him just a single place ahead of other QBs.

Still